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Mr Lawless said, With dwelling values rising substantially more than rents in Sydney and Melbourne, this ongoing effect has created a compression in gross rental yields to the extent that gross yields in these cities are now only marginally higher than record lows. According to the most recent Reserve Banks private sector housing credit data, the pace of investment related credit growth has fallen well below the 10% speed limit implemented by APRA in December 2014. Mr Lawless said, The slower pace of investment credit is likely to be due to more than just higher mortgage rates for investment loans and stricter lending policies, but also due to investors becoming wary of the low rental yield scenario while also anticipating lower capital gains than what was recorded last year. As housing market activity moves out of its seasonally slow festive period, we are likely to have a much better gauge on how the overall housing market is performing in the New Year. January tends to be a relatively quiet month across the housing market, however across the capital cities we estimate that there were approximately 16,500 dwelling sales contracted in January. Additionally, while the number of auctions wont return to normal until early February, the weighted average auction clearance rate across the capital cities over the final weekend of January was 61. 6%; higher than what was recorded during December when the weighted average clearance rate was between 57% and 59% from week to week. The bounce in dwelling values in January may provide an early sign that housing values across the combined capital cities are not likely to experience material decreases in 2016. We believe that the rate of capital gain across the combined capitals in 2016 is likely to be less than the 7. 8% experienced in 2015, driven by a slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne and continued softness in the Perth and Darwin markets, Mr Lawless said. The year is off to a turbulent start; both in the UK, and around the world.


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